The report finds that:
- Pupil absence is a key, and growing, driver of the disadvantage gap. If disadvantaged pupils had the same level of absence as their peers in 2023, the attainment gap at age 11 (of 10.1 months) would have been almost one month smaller and the gap at age 16 (of 18.6 months) would have been over four months smaller
- The growth in the disadvantage gap at age 16 by 0.5 months since 2019 (to 18.6 months in 2023) can be entirely explained by higher levels of absence for disadvantaged pupils.
- At each key stage, more than half of the gap is explained by the size of the gap in earlier phases. Our analysis finds that by age 7, nearly 60% of the gap at age 11 has already developed.
- Disadvantaged students fall even further behind when they attend schools and colleges with lower-attaining intakes – this peer effect adds over 1 month to the GCSE gap in 2023, and a third of a grade to the 16-19 gap.
- The attainment gap is widening for the youngest pupils with special educational needs, with pupils on SEN support in reception year falling 0.7 months behind their peers between 2019 and 2023.
- The gender gap for GCSE students has narrowed during this period as boys are catching up, but this also reflects slower progress of girls during secondary schools.
- The 16-19 disadvantage gap has changed little since 2019 but disadvantaged students have become less likely to continue education after the end of key stage 4.
